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Parlay Bets in the NFL

Introduction

In gambling terms,”parlay” means to wager on at least two occasions, allowing the winnings ride after every win. Usually you shed, but when you win, and depending in part on how many occasions were parlayed, you’ll win big.

In sports betting, the bettor can parlay wins if the games occur concurrently. This can be done either”off the board” or using parlay cards. This webpage address both approaches and comprised three common types of parlay cards. What I hope to convey through this page is that randomly making decisions on parlay cards is a lousy approach to bet sports and ends in a high house advantage. However, the sharp bettor can take advantage of line movements off normal margins of victory from the NFL and put on a strong advantage, of 30 percent or more, on half point parlay cards.

Let me make a disclaimer to choose any win probabilities and expected returns on this particular page with a grain of salt. I had to make assumptions about how point spreads on parlay cards have been intentionally moved to either an integer or not an integer, depending upon the card. My data also doesn’t reflect the truth that lines often go from the time a parlay card is printed to the period of the match. On the 1 hand, the card manufacturer may carefully set the point spreads to minimize player advantage. On the other, it’s a known actuality that closing lines are sharper than opening lines, along with the participant can take advantage of those line movements by placing in parlay cards in the last moment. All things considered, I believe there are big advantages to be obtained with half stage parlay cards, but the advantages can not be calculated exactly. They are greater or smaller.

After reading this site, skeptics may wonder if it’s really easy to beat half stage parlay cards, why is not everyone doing this? A good deal of bettors are. Sports books are nervous about taking thembecause they do tend to get hammered on the same side of certain games that are hot. But, I envision to a Lot of professional gamblers, they Aren’t a workable advantage play because:

It’s challenging to get a great deal of cash down. The most you can usually bet on a single parlay card is $200, and even a wager of $100 can set off red flags if all the options are correlated on the hot sides.
They are time consuming to bubble .
It is feast or famine. Generally , the more legs the player makes, the greater the benefit. By way of instance, an 8-leg half stage parlay pays most 200 to 1. Obviously, these long-shot bets usually lose.

You’re going to have to decide for yourself whether parlay cards are for you. But if you do bet them, hopefully you’ll learn a thing or 2 from my investigation.

Methodology

All win percentages in this page are based on the 4,950 matches played at the 1994 to 2012 seasons. Except as noted, all selections refer to betting against the spread. I really don’t advise betting totals on parlay cards unless there is a considerable line movement.

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