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Parlay Bets in the NFL

Introduction

In gambling terms,”parlay” means to bet on at least 2 occasions, allowing the winnings ride after every win. Normally you shed, but when you win, and depending in part on how many events were parlayed, you can win big.

In sports betting, the bettor can parlay wins even if the games happen concurrently. This can be achieved either”off the board” or using parlay cards. This page address both methods and comprised three common types of parlay cards. What I hope to convey through this page is that randomly making selections on parlay cards is a lousy way to bet sports and ends in a high house edge. However, the sharp bettor can take advantage of line movements off normal margins of victory from the NFL and gain a strong advantage, of 30% or more, on half stage parlay cards.

Allow me to make a disclaimer to choose any win probabilities and expected returns on this particular page with a grain of salt. I needed to make assumptions regarding the way point spreads on parlay cards were intentionally moved to an integer or not an integer, based on the card. My information also doesn’t reflect the fact that traces frequently move from the time that the parlay card is printed to the period of the match. On the 1 hand, the card maker may carefully place the point spreads to minimize participant advantage. On the other, it’s a known actuality that closing lines are sharper than opening lines, along with the player can take advantage of those line moves by putting in parlay cards in the last moment. All things considered, I believe there are big benefits to be gained with half point parlay cards, but the advantages can not be calculated precisely. They could be smaller or greater.

After reading this page, skeptics may wonder if it’s really simple to conquer half point parlay cards, why isn’t everybody doing this? A good deal of bettors are. Sports publications are nervous about taking them, because they really do tend to get hammered on precisely the exact same side of particular games that are hot. But, I envision to many professional gamblers, they Aren’t a viable advantage play because:

It’s challenging to find a great deal of cash down. The most you can usually bet on a single parlay card is $200, and just a wager of $100 may set off red flags if all of the options are connected on the sexy sides.
They are time consuming to bubble in.
It is feast or famine. Generally speaking, the more legs the player gets, the greater the benefit. By way of instance, an 8-leg half point parlay pays most 200 to 1. Of course, these long-shot bets usually lose.

You’re going to have to decide yourself if parlay cards are for you. But if you do bet them, hopefully you’ll learn a thing or 2 in my analysis.

Methodology

All win percentages in this page are based on the 4,950 matches played in the 1994 to 2012 seasons. Except as noted, all picks refer to betting against the spread. I don’t recommend betting totals on parlay cards unless there is a significant line motion.

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